[All] About - The Long Now

[Randy B. McLean]

Susan:

The question of how many years are in a generation is in the root of yours.  10000/years in a generation = # of generations in 10000 years.

1st answer

We now have to consider how old a women (girl,female) should be, must be or aught to be to become a mother.  Biologically the answer is based on fertilization of the egg plus 9 months.  Fertilization of the egg requires ovulation.  The youngest age recorded for ovulation was 5 years old.

Doing the math and accepting the remote possibility, and Murphy's Law, of consecutive generations of girls with the same early ovulation ages then 5 years plus nine months = 5.75 years.

            10000/5.75 years. = 1739.13 or 1739 because 0.13 generations is not a whole number and cannot exist.

This would be the maximum number of generations inside 10000 earth years.

2nd answer

I am the middle generation of 5 still living.  My Grandmother was born in 1912 and her oldest great, great grand daughter was born in 2001 for a difference of 89 years inclusive.  Until my grand daughter reaches the average age of her mothers.  Then the generations will have been 89/(5-1) = 22.25 years.

        10000/ 22.25 = 449 rounded down generations.

other answer

But wait -  A recent article indicates that in the future we will be living longer.  Not as old farts but as young people.  By the year 2050 we (not you and me 'we' but people and specifically special people) will have nanobots inside them modifying genes, cells and organs and zapping dead and deceased cells.  So they may choose not have babies because there will be no rush.  No biological clock ticking away toward a point where the complications out weigh the benefits; risk assessment.  A generation could be hundreds of years then the answer is much different.

What about artificial insemination?  Or when eggs and sperm are frozen and not conceived for centuries because people are virtually living for ever. 

A generation is made when 2 sexes of similar age conceive and give birth to an offspring.  If we keep polluting and endocrine disruptors create a world of significantly more females than males there may develop a situation where male sperm is banked and used to fertilize females born decades or centuries in the future.  The term generation would take on a different meaning.

Randy

ps I was under the impression that the 7 generations was applicable to indigenous peoples of Canada and not to immigrants or their descendents, like the rest of us.  
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Susan Koswan 
  To: 'GREN' 
  Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 8:37 AM
  Subject: [All] About - The Long Now


  Hi GRENers,

  A friend of mine forwarded the link below to me this morning about the Long Now project - I've had a bit of a look at it and it's fascinating, particularly as (coincidentally) my family was just watching a show on Discovery last night about an astronomical water clock invented (?) created (?) by Su Song in China in 1092 (that's not a typo, it is 1092).  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Su_Song. 

  What I find charming about Long Now is that they would write our current year as  02010 to plan ahead for thinking in a 10,000 year time frame and avoid any computer glitches like Y2K. 

  I challenge all of you to figure out how many generations 10,000 years is. Maybe GREN needs to rethink it's 7 generations goal.  8-)

  http://www.longnow.org/about/ 

  Susan K



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