<html><body style="overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><head><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><div dir="auto" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div dir="auto" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div dir="auto" style="overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div><div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div style="text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><div style="overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; 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line-height: 1; text-transform: uppercase; font-family: GMsans-Web-Regular, Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 0.875rem; color: var(--color-grey-500); border-top: 1px solid var(--color-grey-200); padding-top: 1.25rem;"><div class="o-media" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; display: grid; grid-template-columns: auto 1fr; column-gap: 0.5rem;"><div class="o-media__media" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;"><div class="c-article-meta__image c-article-meta__image--small" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;"><a class="c-article-meta__image-link" href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/authors/john-rapley/" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; display: block;"><div class="Image__StyledImageWrapper-sc-2118b8-0 YFlni c-image-wrapper" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; display: inline;"></div></a></div></div><div class="o-media__body" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;"><div class="c-article-meta__bylines" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;"><a class="BylineWithBeats__StyledBylineLink-sc-15ymtyr-1 UzMnS text-gml-3 pb-8" href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/authors/john-rapley/" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1; font-family: GMsans-Web-Label, Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 0.875rem; padding-bottom: 0.5rem; display: inline-flex; -webkit-box-align: center; align-items: center; color: var(--color-grey-800); text-decoration-style: solid; text-decoration-color: currentcolor; text-decoration: none;">JOHN RAPLEY<svg role="img" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" pointer-events="none"><use xlink:href="#forward"></use></svg></a></div><div class="c-article-meta__creditlines pb-8" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; padding-bottom: 0.5rem;"><span class="c-creditline text-gmr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1; font-size: 0.875rem;">SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL</span></div><time class="c-timestamp u-no-wrap text-gmr-5 font-gmsans" datetime="2024-06-15T12:00:00Z" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1; font-size: 0.875rem; white-space: nowrap; display: block;">PUBLISHED JUNE 15, 2024</time></div></div></section></div><article id="content-gate" class="default__StyledArticle-ivh5si-0 kggiAl l-article" data-sophi-feature="article body" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; caret-color: rgb(51, 51, 51); color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><figure class="BodyImage__BodyImagePhoto-xeeopr-0 hMuyCA" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; width: 602px; max-width: 100%; margin: 0px 0px 1.125rem; float: none; color: var(--color-grey-500); clear: both;"><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resizer/v2/ZVEVSJH3VFDWTAK6UYIBRGH4SU.jpg?auth=28cae1161a332f556da6b185d48762dcd278786d789d994b83167977fa7d9643&width=600&quality=80" aria-haspopup="true" data-photo-viewer-index="0" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; display: block;"><span class="u-visually-hidden" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; position: absolute; width: 1px; height: 1px; margin: -1px; padding: 0px; overflow: hidden; clip: rect(0px, 0px, 0px, 0px); border: 0px;">Open this photo in gallery:</span><div class="Image__StyledImageWrapper-sc-2118b8-0 YFlni c-image-wrapper l-media" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; display: inline;"><img alt="" class="c-image" height="399" sizes="(min-width: 80rem) 940px,(min-width: 48rem) 690px,100vw" src="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resizer/v2/ZVEVSJH3VFDWTAK6UYIBRGH4SU.jpg?auth=28cae1161a332f556da6b185d48762dcd278786d789d994b83167977fa7d9643&width=600&quality=80" srcset="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resizer/v2/ZVEVSJH3VFDWTAK6UYIBRGH4SU.jpg?auth=28cae1161a332f556da6b185d48762dcd278786d789d994b83167977fa7d9643&width=1200&quality=80 1200w, https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resizer/v2/ZVEVSJH3VFDWTAK6UYIBRGH4SU.jpg?auth=28cae1161a332f556da6b185d48762dcd278786d789d994b83167977fa7d9643&width=900&quality=80 900w, https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resizer/v2/ZVEVSJH3VFDWTAK6UYIBRGH4SU.jpg?auth=28cae1161a332f556da6b185d48762dcd278786d789d994b83167977fa7d9643&width=600&quality=80 600w" width="600" fetchpriority="high" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; border-style: none; width: 602px; max-width: 100%; height: auto; display: block; color: transparent;"></div></a><figcaption class="c-image-figcap c-image-figcap--block" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; grid-template-columns: auto 38.75rem auto; color: var(--color-grey-500); margin-bottom: 0px;"><div class="figcap-grid" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; display: grid; grid-column-start: 2;"><div class="figcap-cc" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; margin-top: 1rem;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px;"><span class="caption text-gmr-4" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5; font-family: GMsans-Web-Regular, Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 1rem;">This photograph was taken near Nufenenpass above Ulrichen on Sept. 2, 2022.</span><span class="credit text-gmr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1; text-transform: uppercase; font-family: GMsans-Web-Regular, Helvetica, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 0.875rem; display: block; margin-top: 0.5rem;">FABRICE COFFRINI/GETTY IMAGES</span></div></div></div></figcaption></figure><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;"><div class="default__Toolbar-sc-7rloy0-0 ilqFkU article-toolbar" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; display: flex; column-gap: 0px; border-top: 1px solid var(--color-grey-300); color: var(--color-grey-500); row-gap: 0px; padding: 0.25rem 0px; width: 602px;"><a class="Button__StyledButton-sc-2xvxi3-0 jOKDFn tgam-button tgam-button--icon-grey text-gml-2 c-button c-button--comments" data-sophi-action="jumpToComments" data-sophi-feature="article-toolbar" data-sophi-label="Comments" href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-the-energy-transition-comes-in-two-ways-first-slowly-then-suddenly/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links#comments" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: normal; background-image: ; background-position-x: ; 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font-size: 1rem; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; text-transform: uppercase; appearance: button; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; --color: var(--color-grey-700); --backgroundColor: transparent; --border: false; --borderColor: transparent; --active: transparent; --focus: transparent; --hover: transparent; align-items: center; cursor: pointer; display: inline-flex; justify-content: center; row-gap: 0.5rem; column-gap: 0.5rem; padding: 0.875rem 1.125rem; transition: color 0.3s ease-in-out, background 0.3s ease-in-out; color: var(--color); background: var(--backgroundColor); border-width: medium; border-style: none; border-image-source: none; border-color: var(--borderColor); border-radius: 0.125rem; width: auto;"><svg class="button-bookmark tgam-button__icon c-button__icon" width="1rem" height="1rem" role="img" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" pointer-events="none"><use xlink:href="#bookmark"></use></svg><span class="tgam-button__content" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">BOOKMARK</span></span></button></div></div></div><p class="c-article-body__text text-pr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.4; font-family: Pratt, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5; font-family: Pratt-Italic, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem; letter-spacing: 0.2px;">John Rapley is an author and academic who divides his time among London, Johannesburg and Ottawa. His books include </span>Why Empires Fall<span style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5; font-family: Pratt-Italic, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem; letter-spacing: 0.2px;">(Yale University Press, 2023) and </span>Twilight of the Money Gods<span style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5; font-family: Pratt-Italic, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem; letter-spacing: 0.2px;"> (Simon and Schuster, 2017).</span></p><p class="c-article-body__text text-pr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.4; font-family: Pratt, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem;">Europe’s plan for a green new deal to rival U.S. President Joe Biden’s was set back last weekend when radical-right parties, which oppose climate policies, made big gains in the EU elections.</p><p class="c-article-body__text text-pr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.4; font-family: Pratt, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem;">This is the current trend in Western countries. ESG investing, all the rage a couple of years ago, has gone out of fashion as politicians demand a pause in the renewable <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/topics/energy/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">energy</a> transition, saying strapped consumers can’t afford it. Donald Trump says he’d reverse it altogether should he win the November election. Seemingly anticipating this new reality, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b54ddc3a-1924-457b-a680-0a2ef098de76" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">Toyota</a> recently announced it will reorient its plans back to internal combustion engine (ICE) cars from EVs, whose sales it thinks will soon level off.</p><p class="c-article-body__text text-pr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.4; font-family: Pratt, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem;">That may be a mistake. While a pause in the energy transition might bring short-term relief, any country doing it may soon regret the decision. That’s because outside the West, the energy transition is now picking up speed, with potentially profound implications for the world <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/topics/economy/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">economy</a>.</p><p class="c-article-body__text text-pr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.4; font-family: Pratt, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem;">Until recently, led by a handful of North European countries, the developed world has dominated the energy transition. But whereas developing countries had hitherto used cheaper carbon-based energy to industrialize, the falling cost of new energy technology is <a href="https://www.lombardodier.com/contents/corporate-news/responsible-capital/2024/april/picking-the-winners-in-the-energ.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">changing that quickly</a>. Last year alone, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/12/29/europe-us-china-where-installed-the-most-wind-and-solar-power-in-2023" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">China</a> built as much solar capacity as exists in all of <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1424445/forecast-solar-photovoltaic-capacity-european-union/#:~:text=The%20solar%20photovoltaic%20power%20capacity,increasing%2C%20reaching%20roughly%20625%20gigawatts." style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">Europe</a>. This March, <a href="https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2024/04/24/india-installed-7-1-gw-of-renewable-energy-capacity-in-march-2024/#:~:text=India%20set%20new%20record%20for,than%206.2%20GW%20from%20solar." style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">India</a> installed more than 10 times as much renewable capacity as it did the year before. After years of chronic power cuts, South Africa largely ended the problem after the government created tax breaks for households to put solar panels on their roofs, triggering a boom in solar-panel installations.</p><p class="c-article-body__text text-pr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.4; font-family: Pratt, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem;">Developing countries now accelerating their energy transitions are doing it for the same, prosaic reason: to save money and secure supply. When Russian President<span style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.5; font-family: Pratt-Bold, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem; letter-spacing: 0.2px;"> </span>Vladimir Putin travelled to Beijing hoping for a pipeline deal to replace Russia’s lost sales to Europe, he <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-20/putin-in-china-russia-s-pipeline-dream-exposes-beijing-s-energy-advantage" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">went home empty-handed</a>. China wants to <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/12/will-climate-change-drive-a-wedge-between-russia-and-china?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">reduce its import dependence</a>, and renewable energy ends its dependence on anyone. Besides, unlike with carbon-based energy, the marginal utility of green energy is zero: once installed, you have no more fuel bills.</p><p class="c-article-body__text text-pr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.4; font-family: Pratt, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem;">Given that the future growth of global demand will come increasingly from the developing world, whose economies are growing faster than ours, what’s going on there should interest us. Ethiopia’s recent decision to ban imports of ICE cars may be a sign of things to come. Having ramped up its renewable electricity generation, the country wants to switch to an EV fleet, thereby reducing its <a href="https://techpoint.africa/2024/02/08/ethiopia-ban-importation-fuel-powered-cars/" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">hefty reliance on imported fuel</a>to free up money for other uses.</p><p class="c-article-body__text text-pr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.4; font-family: Pratt, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem;">But it’s not just on the demand side of the equation that decarbonization in the developing world will pose a new challenge. As developing countries switch to cheaper renewables, their competitive advantage in labour costs will get a further boost from cheaper energy, hurting Western laggards. Take Germany. Not only will demand for its ICE cars drop, as has already happened in the crucial <a href="https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/shift-e-cars-may-herald-strong-disruption-chinese-german-trade-relations-economists" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">Chinese market</a>, but the other outputs of the country’s manufacturing-intensive economy may get comparatively expensive, further losing it global market share.</p><p class="c-article-body__text text-pr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.4; font-family: Pratt, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem;">So if we leap off the decarbonization train, it will just continue on without us. Driving that is basic economics. Whereas further gains in the efficiency of carbon-based energy generation are incremental, the cost of producing renewable energy has plunged. The same is true of <a href="https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/decade-of-the-battery-334?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=35345&post_id=145431253&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=59u5y&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; color: var(--color-grey-500); text-decoration: none; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--color-grey-500);">battery technology, which is improving so rapidly</a> the intermittency problem in renewable energy may soon be solved: We’ll be able to store energy for long periods and drive all day on a single charge.</p><p class="c-article-body__text text-pr-5" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.4; font-family: Pratt, Georgia, Palatino, "Book Antiqua", "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 1.25rem;">As happened when Western economies originally transitioned from animal power into the carbon age, eventually a point will come that network effects kick in to make the old technologies more costly. For example, as the number of ICEs drop and gasoline demand falls, service stations will close and drivers of ICE cars will have to go further afield for refills.</p><div class="BaseAd__StyledRootBaseAd-sc-1khlkqq-1 l-media" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;"><div id="c-ad--oneX4-gpt-0" class="c-ad--oneX4" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;"><div class="c-ad__wrapper" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; padding: 0.625rem 0px;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.090909; font-size: 0.6875rem; letter-spacing: 0.0625rem; text-transform: uppercase; margin: 0px 0px 0.625rem; padding: 0px 0.625rem; text-align: center; color: var(--color-grey-500);">MORE STORIES BELOW ADVERTISEMENT</div><div id="oneX4-gpt-0" class="c-ad__image rikerAdFrameBody" data-google-query-id="CKe_8YDS5oYDFcfy4wcdBykHlw" data-outstream="true" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; text-align: center; display: flex; justify-content: center; align-items: center; width: 530px; height: 331.125px;"><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/newsletters/?utm_source=house_ad&utm_medium=os_lb&utm_campaign=march_2019&utm_term=business_morning&utm_content=BB#newsletter-group-2" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;"></a></div></div></div></div></article></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>