[All] Alarming new data from UW report on Climate Change. Circulate widely!

Tue Jun 12 11:37:04 EDT 2012

Taken from the following website: http://adaptnowcanada.ca/scenarios/
What will air on Canada in 2020 and 2050?
To develop climate change scenarios for Canada, we we team up with the Canadian Network of climate change scenarios etwork Canadian Climate Change Scenarios (CCSN), a group affiliated with Environment Canada which are part of multiple stakeholders and many Canadian university research centers. The CCSN has developed comprehensive climate projections for Canada for the years 2020 and 2050, referring to changes in the patterns of temperature and precipitation during the four seasons (winter, spring, summer, autumn). The projections were developed using the model of all 24 models combining climate projections to anticipate climate change in Canada (CCSN 2012A),
Temperature 2020 Precipitation in 2020   
Temperature 2050 Precipitation in 2050   
Click to enlarge Summary of regional climate change scenarios projected for the year 2050 (according to reference data from 1971 to 2000)

Source: Observations overall climate models developed by the CCSN, 2010.
Temperatures
These models can be concluded that temperature increases are expected in all regions of Canada, but also that significant differences can be expected from one region to another. For example, the Arctic will warm marked, or 2.0 to 4.0 ° C by 2020 and 4.5 to 8.0 ° C by 2050, while in the rest of the country, the rise provided is more moderate, although significant, is 0.5 to 2.0 ° C by 2020 and 2.0 to 4.0 ° C by 2050.Because of these changes, cities that are already under high temperatures in summer will provide even more hot. Toronto, Montreal, Calgary and Winnipeg, for example, will see an increase in the number of alerts on the Humidex and heat waves. These high temperatures impose a significant burden on urban infrastructure, public services, health services and social services.
Summer temperatures and spring temperatures in the south significantly increase the frequency and intensity of weather conditions conducive to extreme weather events. Moreover, such a slow cooling and warming the formation of ice on the Great Lakes. As the temperature drops in the fall, the lake effect, caused by these large expanses of open lower temperature, will cause significant precipitation events in the form of rain and snow. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events means that decisions relating to infrastructure must incorporate design practices and building highly resilient. The absence of ice on some lakes will also generate an increased evapotranspiration, which could lower lake levels.
The agriculture industry is undoubtedly the one most clearly affected by changes in temperature. Most farming communities across Canada will benefit from a longer growing season and reduced the number of days of frost and freezing. Although there is an important opportunity, seeds and production methods will be an adjustment to the new temperature thresholds, which will increase. Periods of warm weather followed by frosts may kill certain insect populations vital for pollination of crops.
It will be seen in northern regions, a temperature increase of 4.5 to 8 º C during the months of fall and winter.Although this phenomenon opens up new avenues of transport by ship and provides opportunities for exploitation of natural resources, it also causes the melting of permafrost, which will limit our ability to extract these resources and jeopardize the livelihoods many communities in Northern and Aboriginal communities.Ice roads, a more efficient means of accessing essential and shipping supplies for communities and industries in the North, are particularly vulnerable.
As is the case for most climate change, the main concern is a possible "positive response", which ensures that the local warming causes an intensification of climate change. For example, global warming could cause permafrost melting and the release of gas pockets greenhouse currently trapped in the ice. This release could lead, in turn, increased warming of the climate.
Precipitation
Just as the temperature changes projected by global models, changes in precipitation provided vary from region to region across Canada. Models suggest that the Arctic will experience substantially increased levels of precipitation is 10 to 20% by 2020 and 10 to 40% by 2050 and, throughout the winter. During the spring and summer, the Great Lakes will decrease from 0 to 5% of precipitation, but winter precipitation could increase. During the summer, it is expected that British Columbia and Alberta will experience a significant drop in precipitation levels, from 5 to 15% by 2020 and 10 to 25% by 2050.
The southern Ontario, Quebec and the Prairie region will receive a small amount of rainfall during the summer, which could increase watering bans, test the tank, threatening the traditional sources of hydropower, or even to lower levels of the Great Lakes. This drying could be mitigated in part by the increase in winter precipitation.
It is expected that Winnipeg and the surrounding area will experience a significant increase in winter precipitation. This change will increase the likelihood of spring flooding, already a significant environmental risk in the region. Vancouver and surrounding area, however, will experience decreased rainfall. This reduction in rainfall in the Lower Mainland and within British Columbia is the most striking prediction made by climate models overall. The region is already at risk for forest fires and this risk may increase with lower precipitation levels.
The agricultural industry within British Columbia and southern Alberta will have to find new sources of irrigation due to reduced rainfall in summer and winter. The oil sands, based on a sufficient supply of fresh water, could also suffer from water scarcity. to top

________________________________
 From: Louisette Lanteigne <butterflybluelu at rogers.com>
To: gren <all at gren.ca> 
Sent: Tuesday, June 12, 2012 11:02:16 AM
Subject: Alarming new data from UW report on Climate Change. Circulate widely!

ALARMING new report from University of Waterloo's Climate Change Adaption Project now gives suggested climate change projections of 4˚C by 2020 & 8˚C by 2050. 

The link is here. You can scope the executive summery or dive into the complete report but either way, this report needs to be circulated widely. 

http://adaptnowcanada.com/report/

Lulu
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