[All] Fw: Rapid Transit Funding Update
Robert Milligan
mill at continuum.org
Sun Sep 5 02:42:26 EDT 2010
Greetings Jan, Ginny, Kevin and Randy,
Well it seems that the summer LRT doldrums are over perhaps initiated
by the hurricane generated by Harper's $250M(-?) LRT shortfall and the
prospect of Regional taxpayers having to pay $235(+?). And the
proximity of the Municipal election and its anticipated pro/con LRT
battles is a likely additional causative factor.
As for my own research-based position, for many months I have only
supported an enhanced (I don't like very costly white elephants
either) LRT system design (evolving conception) that includes:
1) The goal of middle class LRT ridership optimization to be primary
so that the accelerating traffic jams on many Regional roads can be
reversed. And the best way to achieve this goal is use the existing
rail right-of-way (Ridership Corridor) between terminals at Ainslie
and Northfield that will have sufficient MC attracting power via its
speed, capacity, length and just-in-time express bus connections (that
reach into our Tri-City suburbs and beyond to our township urban
centres);
2) The secondary goal of urban core (key) road intensification
(Intensification Corridors) -- so as to minimize urban sprawl -- needs
to be staged more slowly because: a) it costs so much more per km.
than using the rail right-of-way; and b) the Province's (short)
funding was primarily intended for (Places to Grow Policy based)
intensification (they will perhaps be encouraged to pay more once they
see all the tax revenues produced by our exemplary W to K
Intensification Corridor);
3) A radical reduction in cost as a result of:
i) the 1 & 2 goal shift resulting in the (new) first stage use
of much more rail right-of-way and much less (disruptive) road;
ii) one track only along the King Intensification Corridor (with
passing at the hospital station) will negate the need for most
relocating of sidewalks & (below & above ground) utilities, and for
all building modifications. Further, private businesses will be less
disrupted during construction;
iii) sharing with CP & GEXR their infrequently used tracks,
bridges, underpass, ... instead of redundantly building our own
infrastructure (thus enabling us to require only 1 track of our own
instead of two, avoid new 2-track and 3-track bridges, a 2 track
underpass, etc.);
iv) getting free land from MTO near Sportsworld Dr. for a
maintenance yard;
v) avoiding a very complex and problematic 2-track tunnel/station
under the CN tracks on King St.;
vi) shifting the Kitchener HUB to inexpensive and/or free
(railway) land between King & Joseph Streets and selling the
properties bought between King and Duke Streets;
vii) the use of the Ultra battery or hydrogen combustion engines
(we could produce in a renewable manner ourselves the necessary
electricity and hydrogen) would avoid a complex (catenary)
electrification system;
viii) Etc.
I am trying to get more specific cost details from Regional staff.
However, I tentatively sense (I suffer from very informed intuition)
that Jeff Outhit's implied suggestion (Saturday) that we might be
able to accept a $675 project budget (we pay $150) -- especially with
the above possible LRT enhancements -- is a budget amount that could
likely do the job. And it could be within budget, especially if we are
willing to learn from the many "within budget and on time" LRT success
situations -- I especially like this website where their views are
based on US GAO facts:
Most Light Rail Projects Within Budget, on Time
http://www.lightrailnow.org/myths/m_lrt009.htm
A favorite canard of light rail opponents is the accusation that all
(or most) light rail transit (LRT) projects experience severe cost
overruns; thus, projected costs of new projects are attacked for
supposedly being severely "underestimated". Wendell Cox, Thomas Rubin,
and other rail opponents claim, for example, that "80%" or more of
light rail projects experience serious cost overruns. The result is a
potent scare tactic to alarm the public and turn voters away from
light rail.
in reality, the budget record of light rail projects has largely been
admirable, particularly when compared with alternative large public-
works undertakings such as highway projects. According to a US General
Accounting Office (GAO) study in 1999, out of 14 projects examined, in
cities such as Denver, Portland, Salt Lake City, and Sacramento, about
60 percent of them on schedule and within budget. 79% were within 7%
of budget or less.
And please, don't equate bus "lobbyist" (alias Dr. Bus) John
Shortreed, a key member of bus "advocacy" group, Taxpayers for
Sensible Transit, as an unbiased expert. (For this Jan Narveson
catalyzed band, buses are their begrudging ideological gift to the
working poor but which they will never or rarely use themselves --
their National Post friends don't even like public transit buses.)
I hope this is of some use and helps stimulate further discussion. And
I urge all of you to steal my secret weapon -- good research including
km's & km's of fieldwork! Research is absolutely necessary because of
the very great LRT project complexity and because we very much need
LRT project success to help enhance our reputation for great
Innovation towards that of great Sustainable Innovation.
Best wishes,
Robert (Call me please, 519-696-2288)
PS: I had a good phone conversation with Randy after his email.
On 4-Sep-10, at 7:21 PM, Jan Liggett wrote:
> Hello Kevin,
>
> Randy makes the same points that Cambridge residents do. I didn't
> see anything in your response though as to why the townships and
> Cambridge residents should support this. Doug Craig no matter what
> any person in Cambridge or elsewhere thinks of him as mayor, IS
> speaking on behalf of the Cambridge taxpayer.
> The cost of 790,000 was back four years ago. It was rushed through
> ( I was there that night), with Jane Mitchell walking out because
> regional council was told they had to vote on it that night without
> proper evaluation of the project. She refused to be part of such a
> rushed and costly decision. They were told the funding deadline was
> imminent. The price has escalated since then (and that is without
> the 10 - 25% cost over runs), but no one wants to talk about that.
> Cambridge and the townships were left out that night as well. The
> excuse is that we don't have a high enough bus ridership. We don't
> have high ridership because we HAVE to use our cars. The buses
> don't run when & where we want them to. A personal example; I have
> to drive my staff to the I Express bus stop if we work overtime
> after 5:00 and today Saturday, there are no buses into the
> industrial area where my company is located. Since he worked
> overtime today, he had to get someone to drive him from his home by
> Huron Rd and pick him up again. Across the street is a call centre
> with 1,000's of employees and one of their biggest problems is the
> buses.
> I need employees to be able to get to and from work without having
> to drive them myself. It's not enough to say Cambridge will get an
> upgraded bus system but that they should pay the same amount as
> Kitchener and Waterloo residents for the LRT. We should have had a
> good bus system years ago and yet we are expected to trust that we
> will eventually get what we are already paying for and not getting.
> Would those who support the LRT support paying for it without
> Cambridge and township residents helping with the costs? Or if they
> do pay equally would KW residents approve of them getting free bus
> service in those areas? In other words, what would KW residents be
> willing to give to the townships and Cambridge to make this equitable?
> Even if it were to be built now, within 30 years there will have to
> be upgrades, so to use your projections doesn't seem feasible.
>
> This isn't just about the environment when a large portion of the
> population are left out. It is also about fairness or else it
> becomes a situation of the haves and the have nots. What solutions
> can be found? Thinking caps please.
>
> Jan
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Kevin Thomason
> To: randybmclean at rogers.com
> Cc: all at gren.ca
> Sent: Saturday, September 04, 2010 4:12 PM
> Subject: Re: [All] Fw: Rapid Transit Funding Update
>
> Randy,
>
> Good points, however with 300,000 more people coming in the next 20
> years we have no choice but to put in the required public transit
> needed to allow the city cores to take the majority of the density
> of the people or the alternative is that you will no longer be
> living out in the countryside - you will be overrun by endless
> kilometers of urban sprawl like Mississauga, Milton or Ajax.
>
> If we want to keep our rural lands and countryside we need to
> accommodate these people in the current urban areas and make it
> appealing to them. Yes, $800 million is expensive but it is the
> same cost as a few bridges over the Grand at $83 million each, or a
> few kilometers of new expressways averaging roughly $14 million/per
> km. Even if we have to come up with $300 million locally it is
> still only a few months worth of the $1 billion/year Regional budget
> and surely we can find a way to come up with it over the next three
> decades - the taxes and user fees of the new folks alone will more
> than pay for it many times over. Rapid transit is still by far the
> cheapest of any of the alternatives - and way better than buses
> which won't even take the capacities they are projecting and will
> still cost almost $600 million.
>
> We have to remember that the rapid transit isn't really being built
> for any of us here now but for the tens of thousands of people who
> aren't even here yet. And don't worry - if we get a successful main-
> line running from mall to mall it won't be long until additional
> lines run from campus to campus. Just look at all the LRT lines now
> in Calgary, Portland, or even emerging cities such as Kuala Lumpur
> or anywhere in China. If they can do it successfully so can we.
>
> What we need to do now is ensure that the LRT or any sort of public
> transit improvements don't die because of mis-information, bad media
> coverage, or a jealous Doug Craig shutting down the entire project
> because he isn't getting trains at the onset like Kitchener or
> Waterloo. Even the CTV poll the other day claiming 72% were against
> the LRT actually was worded more about about increasing taxes than
> public transit. It is amazing that anyone responded that they were
> willing to pay more taxes let alone 28% saying they were willing to
> pay more for better public transit.
>
> This is going to become the major issue of the election (likely even
> more than amalgamation or fluoride). GREN needs to help ensure
> people understand the issue, the consequences one way or another,
> and the possibilities rather than just getting carried away by a
> single budget number taken out of context with no regards to all
> kinds of other capital expenditures already underway such as the
> $500 million in construction happening in town on our university/
> college campuses, the $300 million being spent on new sewage
> treatment facilities, the $450 million being spent on roads in just
> 3 years, the $150 million being spent on GO Transit, the $1.5
> billion being proposed for the pipeline to Lake Erie, etc.
>
> Even the $432 per person capital cost of the LRT cited by the Record
> the other day only works out to $14.40 per year over the next 30
> years. Surely it is worth $14 each for all the benefits world-class
> transit will bring our community be it better air quality, new
> investment, jobs, vibrant urban cores, quality of life, protecting
> our countryside, etc. The costs of not doing this well will surely
> be more than $14.
>
> Kevin.
>
> ----------------------------
>
> On 2010-09-03, at 8:43 AM, randybmclean at rogers.com wrote:
>
>> I will ask the questions.
>> 1/ have major capital, multi-government projects ever had
>> significant overruns in cost?
>> 2/ has any government ever backed out of their promise to finance?
>> 3/ Living in North Dumfries why do I have to pay for something I
>> see no use for especially when I only go to Kitchener and Waterloo
>> about 2 times/ month and Cambridge about 1 time per week?
>> 4/ Why are these end terminals from shopping mall to shopping mall
>> and not from education centre to education centre?
>> 5/ Does anyone else believe this will never get off the ground?
>> From: all-bounces at gren.ca [mailto:all-bounces at gren.ca] On Behalf Of
>> Robert Milligan
>> Sent: September-03-10 2:16 AM
>> To: Louisette Lanteigne
>> Cc: all at gren.ca
>> Subject: Re: [All] Fw: Rapid Transit Funding Update
>> Thanks Lulu. Really great news, finally, especially because the
>> need to be frugal can lead to significant technological innovation
>> as in India and China. See http://forums.treehugger.com/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=8551
>> & http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6762f77a-77de-11df-82c3-00144feabdc0.html
>> If so, things will get even more interesting as the Region
>> hopefully struggles to avoid designing an LRT system that -- on
>> detailed analysis -- can unfortunately be considered a potentially
>> very costly "white elephant". I prefer potentially moderately
>> costing successful "green elephants" that can fly fast (between
>> terminals at Northfield & Ainslie) carrying many and many types of
>> people on their back while very conservatively (my tip of the hat
>> to Stephen Harper) using only renewable energy (via solar cells --
>> for UltraBattery charging --covering the terminal areas).
>> Will our Regional Government have the necessary insight, vision and
>> wisdom to dream such a "green elephant" into reality? Or will a
>> dream of a potential "green elephant" be forced to become a "white
>> elephant" out of conventional bureaucratic fear of thinking outside-
>> the-box? It is indeed unfortunate that our Regional Government in
>> not supported in such potential creative innovation by a community
>> culture of World-class pioneering innovation!
>> I particularly appreciated the implied openness to some new
>> possibilities in Chair Ken Seiling's statement, "Now that we know
>> the amount of the federal and provincial funding,we can proceed to
>> determine the best balance between available funding and the long-
>> term, best interests of our community.”
>> A key question is, "To help prevent our community's perceived
>> innovative potential from being stomped on by a costly "white
>> elephant", what IDEAS within the current LRT system design need to
>> be enhanced -- with minimum disruption of the existing
>> Environmental Assessment -- by better IDEAS (that have become
>> apparent in recent months) for successful goal realization so as to
>> be of an affordable cost and serve in a timely and equitable manner
>> "the long-term, best interests of our community.”
>> Robert (definitely not in support of same old, same old -- unless
>> appropriately enhanced)
>> P.S.: 1. Check out first how advanced some key Japanese LRT
>> manufacturers (especially Kinki Sharyo) are in battery powered LRT
>> vehicles, then second the now proven UltraBattery that would likely
>> enable my suggested terminal to terminal on-board (braking
>> enhanced) electrical energy storage requirements to be met. (The
>> increased demand for air conditioning could be supplemented by
>> solar cells on the LRT roof and heating for the coldest days
>> supplemented by heaters that burn air pollution free hydrogen [that
>> we produce ourselves from solar cells over our major land-fill
>> sites].
>> i) http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201008250414.html (I've been
>> invited to take a ride on it when they come to the US in late fall,
>> viz. "We will again present this vehicle at Innotrans and will have
>> a scale model of the vehicle in our exhibit. At that time, the
>> whole rail industry will become aware of the vehicle. We plan to
>> demonstrate this vehicle in Charlotte NC in the 4th quarter of this
>> year. If you would like a ride, let me know."
>> ii) http://www.greencarsaregreat.com/blog/east-penn-manufacturing-granted-32-5-million-to-push-for-breakthrough-ultrabattery-in-the-united-states.php6
>> (As East Penn will not be set to manufacture these until 2012, I
>> have suggested that Kinki Sharyo enhance their demonstration tour
>> vehicle to be able to switch between their Lithium-ion battery and
>> Furakawa's -- same as sub-licensee East Penn Mfg.'s --proven
>> UltraBattery which they manufacture now! Maybe their possible
>> discussions with East Penn will lead to this initial action.)
>> viz."Additionally, as I explained our vehicle is a platform that
>> can be upgraded with new technology as it is advanced. ... if East
>> Penn would like to work on a development with us I will float the
>> idea."
>> 2. I only wish that there was some way to better reach the
>> community (beyond a measly 200 word, editor distorted, letter to
>> the Record) with viable green IDEAS for the LRT system design --
>> maybe I can create an IDEA to achieve this.
>> Note: bcc's have been also sent to other parties who might be
>> interested.
>> On 2-Sep-10, at 8:55 PM, Louisette Lanteigne wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --- On Thu, 9/2/10, RTInfo <rtinfo at region.waterloo.on.ca> wrote:
>>
>> From: RTInfo <rtinfo at region.waterloo.on.ca>
>> Subject: Rapid Transit Funding Update
>> To: butterflybluelu at rogers.com
>> Date: Thursday, September 2, 2010, 4:25 PM
>>
>> It is my pleasure to share with you some important news about the
>> Region of Waterloo’s rapid transit project.
>>
>> Below you will find the news release from today's announcement.
>>
>> Nancy Button
>> Director, Rapid Transit
>>
>>
>> The Government of Canada announces funding for rapid transit in
>> Waterloo Region
>>
>> (September 2, 2010) The Government of Canada will provide one-third
>> of eligible costs, up to $265 million to support the construction
>> of the Region's rapid transit project. Prime Minister Stephen
>> Harper came to Waterloo Region today to make the announcement.
>>
>> “We are pleased that the Federal government recognizes the
>> importance of the Region’s rapid transit project, and has made this
>> funding commitment to the initial phase of the project,” said
>> Regional Chair Ken Seiling.
>>
>> In light of the Federal government’s funding commitment today and
>> the Province of Ontario’s commitment of $300 million, the Region
>> can now move forward with the planning of the project’s scope,
>> design details, cost and Regional funding options. The goal will
>> be to identify the Phase 1 project that provides best value to the
>> community and is affordable to Regional taxpayers given the
>> available federal and provincial funding. Regional staff will
>> evaluate various options for consideration and final decision by
>> Regional Council.
>>
>> “Now that we know the amount of the federal and provincial funding,
>> we can proceed to determine the best balance between available
>> funding and the long-term, best interests of our community,” said
>> Regional Chair Ken Seiling.
>>
>> In June 2009, based on the extensive evaluation and analysis
>> conducted during the Rapid Transit Environmental Assessment,
>> Regional Council:
>> • Approved a light rail transit (LRT) system from Waterloo to
>> Cambridge as the Region’s long-term preferred rapid transit system;
>> • Recognized that a staged implementation would be required to
>> reflect the financial resources required and to ensure the best
>> match of transit technology to ridership and intensification
>> potential; and
>> • Approved the initial phase of the project which includes LRT
>> from Conestoga Mall to Fairview Park Mall and adapted bus rapid
>> transit from Fairview Park Mall to the Ainslie Street Terminal in
>> Cambridge.
>>
>> For more information on the rapid transit project, please visit the
>> website at www.region.waterloo.on.ca/rapidtransit.
>>
>>
>>
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